Is Up favoured? Win rates across 50,000+ Polymarket crypto rounds

Computed from the live archive · updates with every data sync

Every Polymarket Up/Down round ends with a binary verdict: the asset closed higher (Up wins) or it didn't (Down wins). Because our recorder captures each round to its final tick, we can resolve every market in the archive and simply count. Across 50,371 recorded rounds, Up won 25,224 — a rate of 50.08%.

By dataset

Reading the numbers

The aggregate result sits within a fraction of a percent of a fair coin — exactly what an efficient short-horizon market should produce. Crypto drift over five minutes is tiny relative to volatility, so neither side carries a structural edge worth paying for.

That makes the deviations the interesting part. Day-level win rates swing far from 50% — trending days produce streaks where one side wins well over 60% of rounds, and the hourly win-rate charts on each day page show how those streaks cluster around specific sessions. Whether those clusters are exploitable after fees is precisely the kind of question this dataset exists to answer.

Reproduce it

The winner of each round is the side with the higher final tick. The pandas snippet in the data format docs labels every round in a few lines — run it on a free sample day and compare your counts against the day pages here.

Want the full series? The complete archive contains every round behind these numbers, tick by tick.