Insights

Research notes computed directly from the archive. Every number on these pages is reproducible from the datasets themselves.

Is Up favoured? Win rates across 50,000+ Polymarket crypto rounds

We resolved every recorded BTC and ETH Up/Down round and counted the winners. The answer is closer to a coin flip than you might expect — with interesting wrinkles.

What are Polymarket Up/Down markets? A data-first explainer

How 5-minute binary crypto markets work, how their prices behave from open to resolution, and why they make an unusually clean research dataset.